Is Uganda’s Trade complementary with its EAC partners?

Abstract

This study sought to evaluate the extent to which Uganda's trade profile aligns with the import needs of its East African Community partners, with the aim of identifying opportunities for enhanced trade and exploring the implications of Uganda's trade performance within the EAC. The study employs the Trade Complementarity Index (TCI) and Trade Intensity Index (TII) to analyze Uganda's trade flows with its EAC partners between 2013 and 2023. It uses sectoral trade data from the International Trade Centre and UN Comtrade, focusing on Uganda’s top export merchandise and its alignment with EAC partner states’ import needs. Uganda’s trade complementarity with its EAC partners is relatively low across key sectors, such as prepared foodstuffs and chemicals, despite significant regional demand and preferential access. Trade intensity trends reveal a reliance on traditional markets like South Sudan and Kenya, while newer markets like Tanzania and Rwanda remain underexploited.

Policymakers ought to prioritize aligning Uganda's export portfolio with EAC demand, focusing on high-potential sectors. Business practitioners are advised to leverage market intelligence and capacity-building initiatives to enhance production and market competitiveness within the EAC. This study contributes to the understanding of Uganda's regional trade dynamics by providing sector-specific insights into trade complementarity and intensity, offering evidence-based recommendations for enhancing Uganda’s export performance within the EAC.